Despite the fact that ex-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s era might end and a centered-left coalition starts, it is likely that the coalition will find its triumph short-lived. There are many natural reasons for that and there are not many measures that could be taken against it. It is just the way it is.
YOUTUBE
The centered-left coalition arises due to all corruption and bad domestic politics of Prime Minister Netanyahu. It is just a rebellion against the ongoing political behaviors of right wing parties but not nation’s foreign policy or major domestic policies. More the composition of public will be more and more right wing centered by time. Thus, creates risks, if not certainty, for centered-left coalition to short-lived government.
Israel’s national budget has not been approved since 2019 and it is a pressing matter to solve especially after country emerging as COVID-19 success story. The coalition government might push for ultra-Orthodox from military service as military worries its readiness could be undermined by the ever-largest share of young Haredim opting out of military service. Military has a good reason to worry.
According to Israel Central Bureau of Statistic, the Jews and Others population in 25 years (2040) is expected to remain similar to its share in 2015 (79%), as well as the share of the Arab population (21%). In 50 years (2065), the share of the Jews and Others population is expected to rise to 81%, while the share of the Arab population is expected to fall to 19%. But that is not the problem.
ref: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics 01_17_138e.pdf (cbs.gov.il)
The ultra-Orthodox population is expected to rise from 11% of the total population in 2015 to 20% in 2040 and 32% in 2065. Among the group of Jews, the ultra-Orthodox population is expected to rise from 14% in 2015 to 24% in 2040 and 40% in 2065. But that is not only something that should worry Israel military but also international arena, region and Palestinian. Demographics dictate that right-wing parties ideologies will increasingly come to dominate the Israel politics.
The ultra-orthodox have a higher fertility rate than non-orthodox Israeli Jews (4.2% versus 1.2%). More the population swings to right-wing ideology, the right-wing attitudes come to dominate the overall youth vote, with most if this demographics rejecting a Palestinian state and favoring military deterrence over diplomacy with militants.
It is a demographic reality and the new unity government can do little if not nothing about it other than rectifying its policies. Therefore, it is expected that Israeli youth attitudes will be likely to harden further due to future clashes with Palestinians. The right-wig parties in unity government are not interested with a Palestinian state while opposing to give Palestinians Israeli nationality and favor expanding settlements in the West Bank. This already displays the fact that the public opinion in future will lean to more military deterrence rather than political conflicts in the region after seeing the failures of Oslo Accord and the settlement withdrawal from Gaza to bring regional peace. Already 72% of the Israelis opposed the recent cease-fire in Gaza which is a sign of public opinion regarding the military strategies. Moreover, Arab states attitudes to normalize the ties with Israel will only strengthen the public opinion on military deterrence.
Therefore, it is likely to see the centered-left wing union government will likely to resolve in short time. That is a natural outcome of facts in Israel which follows right-wing ideology. Israel still depends heavily on West for arms and economic ties. Therefore it is vital to follow how Israel will develop its national defense industry as well as its economy. If Israel develops both beyond the prediction, then we shall see Israel positioning its foreign policy on ultra-right wing ideology. If Israel fails to develop both and remain in similar position as today, then it will wobble between right-wing dominating democracy versus pressure from Western capitals like Washington and major capitals in Europe.
In order to counter-balance Israel aggressiveness in Middle East, it is vital for Turkey to emerge its economy as well as defense industry despite some positive developments in near future. Unless, Turkish economy pulls itself together, Turkey will be in limited capability to represent the Muslim world.
