According to Sun Tzu’s (Chinese general lived BC 554) “way of deception” is “to as much as possible increase our advantageous conditions and reduce the adversary’s advantageous conditions”. Deception not only involves manipulating an adversary’s understanding of one’s own capabilities and intentions, but also includes manipulating the situation with the goal of further degrading the adversary’s capabilities.
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Iran presents itself to outside world as big and most important Islamic Republic among the Muslim countries. However the reality is completely different. The military’s hardware is obsolete and its economy has been hurting for years. The real power or strength is different than what Iran possess.
Iranian official statement are always fiery statements against the West based on threats, violence and retribution for any military moves targeting Tehran. Former Iranian President Ahmadinejad threatened to wipe Israel off the map. Before him, almost all president did so. And we will hear those in future.
However, what Iranian louds statements differ from Iranian policies. Iranians officials are very much aware that threats could provoke a response which they do not want. And once the reaction to assassination of Qassem Soleimani is remembered, Iran’s retaliation was hitting Iraqi bases housing US troops and firing rockets to military base in Baghdad. Iran knows what will happen if it hits hard from past experience.
In 1988, USS Samuel B. Roberts frigate hit naval mine. US launched the Operation Praying Mantis which sank six Iranian ships and destroyed two oil rigs. In 2020, three Israeli F-35 fighter jets flew over Tehran and returned safely to base. Israel launched hundreds air strikes on Iranian convoys loaded with weapons for Hezbollah. Iran could not dare to show reaction. Lately, Israel assassinated Mohsek Fakhrizadeh, known as the father of Iran nuclear program, and Iran failed to show any reaction.
Iran fails to retaliate against any attacks on their assets and personnel. In 2018, Iran oil export was 2.8 million barrel per day and after serious of attack, it fell to below 1 million barrel per day. Iran responded by attacking Saudi or Emirati oil tankers or attacked oil facilities in Saudi Arabia’s eastern province bur they have not retaliated like US and Israel.
Iran is a country with weak economy. The level of corruption is high and it causes great disruption for economic recovery. IRGC affiliated companies or religious dominated institutions keep dominating the future of Iran. Although administration in Tehran remains secure despite some protests, the future of economy and the country failure in development would keep Tehran remain behind from regional powers.
Deception is efficient since it gives time to rectify the economy and strengthen the military capabilities. Nation adversaries consider the country weak while it creates confusion to recover the strength. Unless, strong economy is established with strong institutions to cooperate with, any nation is doomed to fail. Turkey is not different from Iran when it comes to deception. Despite the fact that military industry develops with limited capability, the disruption on economy due to corruption and wrong economic policies pressures on future military and social development programs.
Unless, Turkey rectifies the economy, strengthens institutions and eliminates the corruption, it is imminent to lose power in future.
