Well, Russia puts a great pressure to Turkey in Idlib by cutting the Turkish humanitarian aid to Idlib. And that would ultimately provoke attacks from Turkish backed militant groups which ultimately brings the Russian – Turkish military likely confrontation and a new flow of refugee into Turkey.
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In February 2021, Russian planes hit the logistics centers associated with bab al-Hawa crossing the Syria-Turkey border where humanitarian aid flows into Idlib. Russia wants to put pressure into the aid assistance so that they consider to influence the militants in Idlib and create leverage to make deals for their surrenders. However, it increases retaliations risks.
For Turkey, there are not many choices. If Russia and Syria plans succeed, Turkey will lose upper hands. The choices and consequences follow as;
1.) Turkey and militant groups do nothing. Most likely, Idlib will be lost and people will be pushed to leave Idlib. Thus, Turkey will face another refugee crisis (around 2 million people).
2.) If Turkey and militant groups retaliate – Russia and Syria and their militant groups will come with some losses. Even Turkey can create another door to Idlib with UN endorsement but this would provoke Russia and Syria. In return, Russian and Syrian militant and proxies groups will attack Turkish and militant groups. There will be losses from both sides. Turkey would be under pressure to respond. Eventually, this might bring a direct Russia – Turkey military confrontation. It would push more refugees into Turkey.
Either way, Turkey faces hard choices in near future with costs associated. Russia expects Turkey to come to table with new terms beneficial to Syria and Russian interests since the consequences are high for Turkey. On the other hand, Turkey sees both choices are with high costs. Both options contain the refugees flow into Turkey which have greater costs affect than controlled military confrontation.
Russia will not push turkey into corner unless Russia has something in his hand. However, Turkey has no place to hide and refugee flow is not choice but seems certainty in any option. So the real question – to what degree Turkey will escalate the tension.
