When I was a student in UK, there was a debate about EU future. I remember I was reading and hearing the debates like “EU integration is living example of failure”. Especially I was hearing those debates from the other side of continent. As a young Turk (at that time), it was great interest to read and such debates about the future of EU which Turkey wants to involve in. However, as the time passes (I become an adult), it becomes clearer that it is not easy to achieve such integration, there are many challenges to overcome. One of them is the sovereignty issue.
YOUTUBE
If an concept of EU should be discussed like “American”, then EU should achieve federalism. That might mean a single currency (mostly achieved), federalism (not even close to), single military army (only discussion).
Withdrawal of United Kingdom from the European Union clearly sets the threats ahead of EU in future. Therefore, Brussel cannot neglect the issue of Poland Hungary. It is not easy to solve this problem if not impossible. But it has to be contained although EU has not much tool to do so.
Poland has been under EU critics since 2010s. According to the critics, these policies are incompatible with the European Union’s values and rules and the principles of a democratic society. But Warsaw argue that their decision is necessary to fight against corruption in the judiciary, end misinformation campaigns by domestic and foreign actors, and protect its culture and identity. Most important, Warsaw insists that Poland is a sovereign state and intends developing policies as it see fit. After Brexit, it is a clear threat to EU feudalism.
Brussel has limited option to do. EU is not a club where you can dismiss a membership if one of the member does not comply with principles. Even to do so require unanimous vote which is very difficult to take if not impossible. Since EU has no mechanism to dismiss a membership, it can suspend agriculture and structural funds to push Warsaw complying EU principles. However, this can even more alienate Warsaw and push it to foreign nations like China and US. Unlike Russia, Warsaw like likely to work with China since it requires foreign investments. However it would create great obstacle in EU to implement any sanction against Chinese if required. This would also bother US since it is also its interest to contain Chinese integration into European market. US will not allow this to happen but would not care about the EU federalism too. Moreover, US is very much concerned to some major EU countries vs Russian relations namely Germany. The energy contracts are the weak spots of German policies due to scarcity. The nearest route and supplier is Russia. And Russia wants to reduce the influence of US in EU since it has great security contrast in East Europe.
That puts Warsaw into great position since Poland can lean on US policies and there will no need of EU integration to continue economic development since US market will be widely open to it. Already, Warsaw and Washington has enormous military purchase. Warsaw has lately diversified the military by purchasing drones from Turkey. The drones proved itself in war between Armenia and Azerbaijan and early in Libyan conflicts against Russian provided air equipment system.
Warsaw already started implementing its own policies. Poland is aware that it cannot rely on EU defense mechanism since it does not trust Germany if a military conflict arises with Russia. It leans to develop its own military industry where as diversifying its military equipment list via technology. The economic success of Warsaw since 2000 has given unprecedented levels of prosperity to country. Thus, allowed the governments to be re-elected many times. Thus, enables Poland to develop independent policies for Poland future other than EU. Warsaw is convinced that EU does not create a security umbrella but only an economic benefit. And economic benefit can always change based on changing variables. Therefore, Warsaw has to develop independent policies which would ensure its security and diversify its economic interests.
While Warsaw pursues such policies, this would weaken EU-bloc policies and create more fragmented bloc in future. However, Brussel is missing an vital point; increasing Poland influence is natural consequence of the EU weaknesses and Warsaw is not willing to take chance by waiting. We will see Poland developing independent policies other than Brussel and this would only intensify by time. It is only a reality and Brussel needs tidying up its policies but not setting off Poland. Warsaw is just doing fine.
