Following the victory of Taliban over foreign forces including Afghanistan national security forces, Afghans started to fled from the country. Including the Syrian and Iraq refugees, the number of refugees exceed 6 million. 300 000 are from Afghanistan. The number of Afghan refugees are expected to increase by time.
Afghan refugees prefer Turkey since most of them as Sunni as opposed to neighboring country Iran which is ruled with Shia laws. Moreover, the economic situation of Turkey compared to Pakistan or other Sunni countries are much more better.
Turkey, as opposed to refugees from Syria, might need to Afghan refugees since most of them are working in agriculture industry. The villages and rural areas in Turkey became less populated. Most people are leaving those areas and go to big cities to find better jobs. That leaves Turkey decreasing livestock and agriculture activities. In order to maintain food to growing population, Turkey might use these refugees in agriculture industry as well as livestock production areas where they will be accommodated in villages and rural areas.
However, it does not solve the imminent problems Erdogan face today. Nativism is in rise in Turkey. While the economic indicator is disrupted due to Covid-19 pandemic and improper economic policies, AKP popularity is under threat.
If AKP intends to close the door to Afghan, it will cause weakening Islamist group support to AKP. If AKP prefer accepting refugees, it will disrupt the economy and cause more resilient from population due to increasing nativism. And if Turkey opens the border to EU, then any financial help will cut by Brussel. It is almost the first time Erdogan has faced such dilemma. And whatever Erdogan prefers, there would be an economic and political consequence for his administration.
However, it does not mean that it does not construe Turkey is changing dramatically. The birth rate of these refugees are much bigger than Turks in mainland. Considering that they will be given the passports, their votes will matter in the long term. Thus, construes Turkey will also lean on right wing ideology which Erdogan wants. President Erdogan has seen that the young generation is not supporting his policies. The polls suggests that 80% young generation who will first time vote in next generation will choose another party other than Erdogan’s AKP party. Accepting these refugees with a mid-term plan that they will be Turkish citizens, would only consolidate AKP administration in future. Out of 6 million population, it is estimated to have 4 million refugees over 18. That construes, 80% of them support right wing ideology or basically Erdogan’s party. This number if citizenship is guaranteed, would make a big impact in any future election. Therefore, it may not be seen as negative as some see for Erdogan’s future. If it can be managed in 5 years with new voters arising from refugees, Erdogan might guarantee a long term successor following his term ends in possible 2028 elections.
However, the most important issue is economy for now. President Erdogan also knows that he has to do something about the economy otherwise opposition parties will attract loyal AKP voters. However, President is aware that he would lose in options but the question is which one will cost less. President Erdogan plays a long game. And for now, no one seems to understand his game, yet.
