Geopolitic Compass considers that the tension between Iran and US will increase during 2020. Trump administration will increase the pressure on Iran. The economy is worsening and regardless who wins the election in Iran, Iran’s different fractions will remain united behind the Iran National Security Council.
US economic pressure has lead Iranian elites to observe the fact that they have to be united. That is why there is a new power balance is already taking place in Iran. While this happens, the Iranian’s elites including the elites agree with the harsh tactics used against the protesters during the fuel price hike.
The negative effects of US economic pressure will felt in elections. The survey shows that the hardliners will gain more seat and influence in the 2020 elections. The economic pressure will give the tool what the hardliners seek for during 2020. They will heavily use the economic sanctions to influence the elections while reformist will have less power to influence.
Moreover, Iran elites will likely to wait for the US election during 11/2020. Although Trump administration is dealing with impeachment while trying to deal with other domestic problem, Geopolotic Compass considers that Trump administration has a great chance to win the election. President Trump has reduced the unemployment rate to lowest since 1980s. That is a huge success regardless all domestic issues. Thus, business industry has a great support. It is undeniable that the Ukraine issue including his character on people have negative effects, the real gains in people’s pocket including no real rival from Democrats will help him to win the elections.
If that would happen, it is unlikely that Iran will show steps of soft policy while US will work hard to ease the sanctions.
So the picture will not change, what does it mean to Saudi Arabia and Turkey?
First; Saudi Arabia. The relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia are already at high tension since 80s. Saudi Arabia is basically against Iran primarily religious motives. Saudi Arabia is a Sunni state and Iran is a Shi’a state. The tension in Yemen, Hurmuz Strait and Iraq are due to that reason. UN has not found any trace of evidence that would tie the tanker attacks with Iran or there is no evidence that tied Saudi Arabia with the drone attack targeted the home of Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr on 7th of December. Saudi Arabia has no sufficient military capability to defend itself against Iran. Indeed, Saudi Arabia has the technological advantages against Iran however the Yemen attacks already emphasized that Saudi Arabia army is not capable to developing effective military strategies.
When it comes to Turkey, things are different. There is a rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Turkey to be a leader among Muslim states. On the other hand, Turkey believes a sustainable relation with Iran. Turkey has seen during Iraq invasion when it cuts the valves that the economy deters and no other alliance helped Turkey about it. Therefore, Turkey tries to avoid any sanctions since it would deter the fragile economy. Moreover, Turkey is aware that US will leave the area one day for good. However, Iran will exist here forever. Therefore, it does not want to make Iran concerned about Turkey’s action. However, this would be a short term goal since Turkey already increases its influence in northern Syria and Iraq.
For Iran – economy will be the major source of headache. As long as Iran losses the economic incentives, Iran would find it harder to support its proxy activities in Syria and Iraq even in Lebanon. Therefore, the Iran will focus on securing its borders while maintaining the proxy activities as much as possible elsewhere.
