Indeed, it is since there are many considerations related to Moscow’s initiative. Ukraine is bound to defend the mainland. It cannot dare for open area war but it has to fight with effective infantry which is supported by anti-tank, anti-air and advanced reconnaissance systems. So far, Ukraine seems succeeding. Russia seems losing due to miscalculation and wrong strategy. So far it costs politically, economically and moreover with Russian solider lives. Therefore, if Moscow changes its strategy and revises its military operation, would definitely reshape the future of war in Ukraine. Therefore, it may take from couple of months to couple of years even in war.
Near history has examples about it. The Israel – Arab war took some days. Vietnam, Korean war took years. Turkish Cypriot operation a month. All of these have different strategy applied by military officers based on different objectives. The number of infantry to technology played major roles to defined the duration of the war. Russian objective was defined as to conquer Ukraine. They believed that Ukraine military is poorly designed, not capable of fighting and the military leaders were not good. However Russia made two major errors in setting their strategy. First, Russia made it so obvious that the attack will inevitably happen. It gives Ukraine military officers to plan and train their infantry into more smaller groups supported by anti-tank missiles, ground to air missiles and other military technology. It takes the surprise element out of equation. Second, Moscow believed that Ukraine will be left alone like in Crimea but EU, UK and US had started supplying military technology to Ukraine from day #1.
First mistake arises due to self-esteem; Moscow thinks Ukraine is taken for granted. They were wrong that Ukraine army will escape shortly. Secondly, it is a total blow for Moscow that EU, UK and US will come around and provide military logistics to Ukraine.
This was a political and decision-maker mistakes in civil level. What surprises to all is the military failure. When you plan such attack, military elites start it by planning all possibilities and routes. There will be fighters and fighters need continuous logistics. However, the logistics are also not done properly which caused a major strategy change in Moscow’s plan soon after military operation started. The poor logistics caused Moscow to abandon Kyiv capture at first effect. This shows the world that Russian military elites poorly planned the invasion and the infantry poorly executed the military operation at the site. Those already had an effect on Russian military image.
The objective of the Russian elites is to invade Ukraine. So far, it has not been achieved. And seems it is not feasible. However Russian elites have not changed their strategy. At this moment, Russian army still aims to siege the cities and capture them. However with this logistic problems and infantry lack of proper organization or lack of military chain command, it is not clear if not proper how Russian military will achieve the military objectives. As long as Ukraine is supported by West and US military technology, Russia is inevitably forced to retreat back.
Moscow is facing with hard choices. Retreating construes a defeat, long war will definitely hurt Russian economy while loss of Russian solider lives will increase. Long war will strengthen the Ukraine position even if their loss will also increase. Moreover, long war might even have the risk of Russian army defeat which will be even more catastrophic then effects of retreating.
How and when the war truly depends on Moscow where the Russian elite’s politic process remains vague. West and US will keep on doing what they have started from the first day; support Ukraine with military technology and financial aid. Russia can lengthen the war into years but it will harm and bring additional risk even risk of defeat. As the war remains, it will compel Russia to pay a higher cost even more than today if Moscow opts such withdrawal.
What Turkey does is correct and beneficial to its own interest. Turkey intends to be a neutral while doing both sides wishes as much as it is possible. Russia is in decline in terms of power and influence. This will be more visible in Central Asia and Black Sea region in a decade. Turkey intends to fill this gap. If Turkey becomes more dominant, it shall not be surprising naval bases in Black Sea Region as well as permanent military basis in Central Asia. The drone production agreement with Kazakhstan is just an important milestone which most analyst have missed already but it is a major military technology transfer which will intends building confidence among Turkic states and will lead them to dissolve Russian alliance in future.
For now Russia will play the hard way but Russian elites have realized the long term outcomes. Narrowing the size of objectives and concentrating on Luhansk and Donetsk already display the fact that Russian elites are aware of the facts. End seems inevitable for Russia; either today or later there will be a cost to Russia. And if you think it will be limited with Ukraine, you are mistaken. The effects of such defeat will be on Crimea and in Black Sea in coming decade.
